LAPORAN MAGANG BALAI KARANTINA

 WHAT IS THE FUTURE OF NATURAL RUBBER

Natural Rubber Market Overview

The global demand for natural rubber is predicted to grow at a CAGR of 4.8 % (2019–2023) and the production is set to touch ~17 MMT (Million Metric Tons) by 2022, from the current level of 12.43 million MT. The automobile market is anticipated to increase the demand for natural rubber production in Thailand and Indonesia. On the other hand, the natural rubber market in Malaysia is set to grow due to the rise in latex products such as condoms and gloves.

The natural rubber market witnessed a lack of strong growth catalysts from 2019 to H1 2020, with a decline in sales of auto and tires. Further, the weakness in key downstream automobile and tire operations combined with a downtrend in oil prices and buying momentum due to the COVID-19 crisis, US-China trade war and other macroeconomic factors, demand had waned down in 2020.

Natural Rubber Market Analysis & Forecast

• Thailand, with a supply share of 37%, is estimated to supply 4.65 million MT of natural rubber at a CAGR of 4.5% by 2022.
• Only 14% of natural rubber is consumed domestically in Thailand, but it continues to be one of the most suitable sourcing regions as the area provides good quality rubber with a sufficient supply and low costs.
• Asia will continue to be the dominant supplier of natural rubber owing to the increase in yielding area and the average yield in top producing countries including Thailand, Malaysia, and India.
• Emerging natural rubber producers, such as Ivory Coast, and Cambodia, among others, are likely to showcase competition in the future.
• Opportunities: Shift of the tire industry toward low-cost production countries is expected to open new avenues of tire growth, thereby increasing the natural rubber market share.
• Challenge: Shortage in supply, post-2020, on account of the decrease in plantations post-2014, would pose concerns of limited output in supply.
• The natural rubber price forecast shows that with the weakening downstream demand, losses in TOCOCM markets, as well as the end of the ITRC export curb scheme; the ongoing supply limitations may curb further declines in prices.

source : https://www.beroeinc.com